The Source - November 19, 2015

Summary

Celery:
Celery supplies extremely light. Demand exceeds supplies and escalated pricing is in effect.

Weather Update

High pressure returns out west with gradual warming to seasonal averages into the weekend. Light lettuce ice remains possible in the colder valleys from California to Northern Mexico under clear skies and lighter winds. Forecasts expect (90% chance) a tropical depression to form off the Southwestern coast of Mexico, (currently 600 miles off the tip of Baja) over the next few days. The track this system will take is unclear at the moment, however it will likely move into Southern Baja on Sunday moving into Sinaloa and Sonora on Monday. We will keep a close eye on this system over the next few days into the weekend.
A strong cold front makes its way through the Southeast today moving into Florida on Thursday with showers and cooler temperatures into the weekend.

Freight Update

California trucks remain steady but look to tighten up for the week of Thanksgiving. Washington and Idaho trucks should remain steady for the week. The National average remained steady and is now $2.482 per gallon. A difference of $1.172 from this time last year. California prices are steady as well and are currently at 2.769 per gallon. Crude oil remains steady and is at $42.10 per barrel.

Commodity Updates (Click row for summary) Expand All

Apples

California - Pink Ladys are steady to lower as most shippers are in clean-up mode. The quality has been good.
Washington - Red Delicious remain very large and most shippers are peaking on 72/80/88's. All size reds are higher but the smaller sizes are especially short. As a state Washington red delicious volume is down by 30% from last year so expect a season-long strong market. Golden delicious are steady and still producing mostly premium grade 100/113s. Large Goldens are extremely short! Washington golden delicious volume is down by 25% from last year so expect them to stay strong. Granny-smiths are steady to higher on all sizes and are still peaking on 88/100/113s. Most Granny shippers don't have much larger than an 88-size but are also short on 125's and smaller right now due to strong demand. Galas are steady on all sizes. Most Gala shippers are still peaking on 100/113s and don't have much available on 88's or larger. Fujis are steady and are peaking on extra-fancy 80/88/100's. Honeycrisp are way up do to stronger demand from other states finishing up. Washington fruit is still peaking on 64/72s. Lower grade Honeycrisp are still cheaper. Jonagolds and Braeburns are both steady and continue to peak on 72/80/88's. The quality for all varieties has been good.
Michigan - Red delicious are steady on all sizes and are still peaking on 72/88s. Empires are steady on all sizes and still peaking on 125/138s. Some suppliers will finish with Empires in late November/early December. McIntosh are higher and they are heavier to 125/138s. Galas are steady on all sizes and are now heavy to 138s. Gala availability is relatively light. Golden delicious are higher due to higher than normal bruising during packing and they are still peaking on 125/138s. Honeycrisp supplies are very light as they are nearly finished for the season. Jonathans are steady on all sizes and they are still peaking on 150/138/125s. Fujis are steady and they are also peaking on 125/138s. Cortlands, Red Romes, Ida-reds, and Jonamacs, are all still available.
New York - Red delicious, Macs, Galas, Macouns, Empires, Cortlands, and Golden delicious are all steady. McIntosh and macoun volume is good and some shippers will flex on certain sizes and grades. The Macs are peaking on 100s and the galas are heavier to 100/113s. The Gala volume is light on all sizes. Most suppliers are finished with Honeycrisp. The quality has been good on all varieties.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Hudson/Pleasant Valley/Red Hook, NY Steady Good
Wenatchee/Yakima, WA and Hood River, OR Steady Good
Stockton, CA Lower/Steady Good
Coopersville/Belding/Sparta, MI Steady Good
Asparagus

This market is active. Large sizing, jumbo packs in particular continue to be in extremely light supplies. Supplies have tightened up out of the Peruvian growing region. Southern Baja is moderate to light in availability, and this will likely continue all week. Good quality, overall continues to be reported.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Ica, Peru to Trujillo Higher Good
Southern Baja, MX Higher Good
Avocado (Mexican)

We are starting to see the supplies in the pipeline to the forward warehouses being filled subsequent to the past rains in Mexico. We are now into the new crop and are stating to see a more normal range of sizes, peaking on 48s and 60s. Limited volume on #2 fruit as quality is very good. This new crop fruit is lower in maturity and will take longer to ripen and not darken as much when ripen. Ripe fruit could still be green in color as the skin isn't mature enough for it to darken. Color is not an indication of ripeness, pressure is.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Michoacan, Mexico Steady Good
Berries (Blackberries)

The CA blackberry crop continues to decline in volume and should end major production by late November, early December. Mexico is ramping up production weekly as we move further into their growing season. Quality issues with soft fruit, red cell and juicing have been reported in both CA and MX fruit. Availability has been sporadic as quality issues continue to pose a challenge.








- pa_admin

Transitions:
Mexico is ramping up production volume weekly!

Growing Region Market Quality
Central Mexico Steady Fair
Watsonville, CA Steady Fair
Santa Maria, CA Steady Fair
Oxnard, CA Steady Fair
Berries (Blueberries)

Availability has improved some over recent weeks with increased volume on both the east and west coasts. South America and Mexico struggled with inclement weather over the past months, this had affected both production and quality of shipments bound for the US. Growers have shipped less fruit overall due to fruit being discarded because of poor quality. We should see more blueberries arriving from Chile as their crop begins to ramp up and more shipments will be sent to the US.

- pa_admin

Transitions:
Chilean blueberry crops should begin to ramp up in production over the next several weeks and we should see more shipments to the US.

Growing Region Market Quality
Buenos Aires, Argentina Steady Good
Trujillo, Peru Steady Good
Salto, Uruguay Steady Good
Central Mexico Steady Good
Southern Chile Higher Excellent
Berries (Raspberries)

The CA raspberry crop continues to decline in volume out of both northern and southern growing districts. Supply has been fairly steady in CA this week as fruit transfers from all growing regions are arriving to provide fruit to the coolers. Central Mexico is ramping up production but continues to face challenges with weather and logistics to get the fruit to the U.S. Quality has suffered some with wet, leaky fruit but harvesting crews are focusing on diverting subpar product to pack quality.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Watsonville, CA Steady Fair
Oxnard, CA Steady Fair
Central Mexico Steady Fair
Berries (Strawberries) Alert

Demand exceeds supply in all growing regions. We are experiencing a severe shortage of strawberries industry-wide and this supply gap looks to continue for another 3-5 weeks. Availability has decreased drastically and will continue to decline throughout the month of November. The Northern growing regions (Salinas, Watsonville, Castroville) have ended production for the season. The Southern districts (Santa Maria and Oxnard) are past the crop's peak production and will continue to decline in production weekly. We have also seen rain and cooler weather in the growing regions which have posed another set of challenges with delayed growth and disrupted harvests. Mexico has been very slow to get started with their season and the fruit crossing into the U.S. has been very minimal in volume so far. Most shippers are quoting 2-3 weeks before we will see this volume ramp up significantly and that projection is dependent on favorable weather. Florida production has begun in a small way but this limited production is being sold locally until volume ramps up and sizing and quality improve over the next several weeks.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Demand exceeds supply in all growing regions. We are experiencing a severe shortage of strawberries industry-wide and this supply gap looks to continue for another 3-5 weeks.

Transitions:
Central Mexico and Central Florida should be increasing in production over the next 3-5 weeks.

Growing Region Market Quality
Santa Maria, CA Higher Fair
Oxnard, CA Higher Fair
Central Florida Higher Fair
Broccoli Alert

This market continues to gain strength. Demand exceeds supply. Escalated pricing is in effect. Yuma has not begun production as of yet. Crown production will be light all week. Broccoli issues will include yellow beading, hollow core, pin rot, light green color, as well as a rubbery texture. The main production continues to be out of the Salinas Valley, with light production in Southern California. This will continue for the rest of the week. There continues to be production in Mexico as well as McAllen. Yuma will not have production until approximately Thanksgiving. There is light production on crowns in Phoenix Arizona if needed.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Broccoli demand exceeds supplies. Pricing is on escalator.

Transitions:
Yuma expected to begin production after Thanksgiving.

Growing Region Market Quality
McAllen, TX Higher Fair
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Fair
Salinas Valley, CA Higher Fair
Carrots

Cooler weather in Bakersfield is slowing growth and the sizing and tonnage is dropping off. The percentage of jumbo size carrots is falling off and market is firming.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Bakersfield/Santa Maria, CA Steady/Higher Excellent
Cauliflower Alert

Demand exceeds supplies. This pattern will continue throughout this week and next at a minimum. Escalated pricing is in effect on carton contracts as well as value added items. Yuma will not begin production until approximately after Thanksgiving. Salinas and Santa Maria are the main growing regions associated with this commodity currently. The overall quality is reported to have slight spotting sporadically. Pricing will increase daily.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Cauliflower demands exceeds supplies. Escalated pricing in effect.

Transitions:
Yuma is not expecting production until after Thanksgiving.

Growing Region Market Quality
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Good
Salinas Valley, CA Higher Good
Celery Alert

Escalated pricing is in effect. Demand exceeds supplies on this commodity. Pricing will be strong for the next two weeks, minimum. Large sizing continues to be in high demand for the holiday pull. Oxnard, Santa Maria and Salinas are the main production areas at this time. The quality continues to be reported as good in all growing regions.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Celery supplies extremely light. Demand exceeds supplies and escalated pricing is in effect.

Transitions:
Salinas will have production for another 1-2 weeks.

Growing Region Market Quality
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Good
Salinas Valley, CA Higher Good
Cilantro

This market continues to get stronger. The Baja region of Mexico as well as Southern California continue to be the main growing areas for this commodity. Supplies have tightened up dramatically compared to the past couple of weeks. Rains in California will likely alter production numbers.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Baja, MX Higher Good
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Good
Salinas, CA Higher Good
Citrus (Lemons) Alert

Demand remains very good. The Desert crop is 30% lighter in volume than last years. This crop is producing a larger proportion of fancy grade and is peaking on 140s and larger fruit, which is in good availability with market easing off a bit, but still leaving us in a demand exceed supplies on 165s and smaller fruit. Expect this shortage on smaller fruit to continue through January.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Demand exceeds supply on the smaller sized fruit 165s/200s/235s. Expect shortages to go through January.

Growing Region Market Quality
Coachella, CA / Yuma, AZ Steady Good
Citrus (Limes)

The lime market is higher on all of the sizes now. Hard rains in the last few days have temporarily disrupted harvesting in the growing area but current production should be back to normal by mid next week. Bigger fruit is the result of the rains. Holiday demand from Europe has started and they prefer smaller sized limes. The increased size of the fruit and increased demand is putting upward pressure on the small sized fruit. The overall quality is very good on the new crop. We continue to have good demand on limes.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Veracruz, Mexico Higher Excellent
Citrus (Oranges)

All shippers have began to pack this years California Navel crop this week. Cooler night time temps are bring on better natural color to the oranges and growers are able to drop gas times on the fruit down to 48 hours. This will help both quality and turn around of fruit. Sizes are peaking on 113s/88s/138s. Larger sizes of 72s and 56s are very limited as fruit has not sized up yet. Volumes will continue to pick up over the up coming weeks, if weather cooperates.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Merced to Bakersfield, CA Lower/Steady Good
Riverside, CA Lower/Steady Good
Grapes (Green) Alert

The green grape market continues to strengthen as supplies dry up. Late season quality is fair to good with the better quality demanding a premium. Peruvian green's are available now but are being quoted much higher than the domestic crop.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Quality on the domestic crop is off.

Transitions:
Peruvian green grapes available on the East Coast. Limited quantities

Growing Region Market Quality
Delano, CA Higher Good
Fresno, CA Higher Good
Madera, CA Higher Good
Grapes (Red)

The red seedless grape market is strengthening daily but only moderately as compared to the green grape market. We are seeing a wide range of quality due to the recent rains and the inherent weakness of the grapes towards the end of the season. We should see adequate supplies available through the end of the year but the very first of the Peruvian red seedless have just become available on the East Coast.

- pa_admin

Transitions:
Early Peruvian red's are now available in limited quantities on the East Coast.

Growing Region Market Quality
Delano, CA Steady/Higher Fair
Fresno, CA Steady/Higher Fair
Madera, CA Steady/Higher Fair
Green Onions

This market is very active. Supplies look to be limited out of Mexico this week as well as next as labor issues will come into play due to the upcoming holiday. The main sizing in Mexico continues to be in smaller sizes. Salinas' production will be light all week. The main sizing continues to be in small and some medium packs.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Mexicali, Baja Higher Good
Salinas Valley, CA Higher Good
Kale

This market is firm. Mexico will have moderate supplies for the rest of the week.Demand is stronger. The overall quality continues to be strong. Pricing is expected to be competitive for the entire week. Light demand by the first of next week is expected to be light.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Baja, MX Steady Good
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Steady Good
Salinas, CA Steady Good
Lettuce Iceberg Alert

Demand exceeds supplies. Escalated pricing is in effect on contract cartons and value added items. Production in Salinas is finished. Santa Maria is extremely limited. Huron has finished production. Yuma production is extremely limited. Seeder and light weights are the big issues in all the growing regions. Quality issues include small and irregular head size, lightweights, seeder, decay, puffiness, insect damage and internal burn. These defects are industry wide and will continue throughout the month.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Lettuce demand exceeds supplies. Escalated pricing in effect.

Transitions:
Salinas and Huron production is finished and Yuma harvest has begun.

Growing Region Market Quality
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Fair
Yuma, AZ Higher Fair
Lettuce Leaf Alert

Salinas and Huron are finished in production. Demand exceeds supply. The quality issues continue in all the growing regions. These issues include fringe burn, small and irregular sizing, insects, dehydration, seeder and internal burn. Romaine is extremely active. Green and red leaf are active as well. Fringe burn, mildew damage, internal burn and insect pressure continue to be defects associated with these commodities. Butter will continue to be very light in availability all week. This is industry wide. There will continue to be gaps in pricing among the different shippers on all leaf items.

- pa_admin

Alerts:
Light supplies on leaf all week. Escalated pricing in effect.

Transitions:
Salinas and Huron finished with production. Yuma harvest has begun.

Growing Region Market Quality
Oxnard/Santa Maria, CA Higher Fair
Yuma, AZ Higher Fair
Melon (Cantaloupe)

The desert has been producing good volumes of large sized fruit with nice color and sugar content with a peak size of 9ct. Lope 18ct are very scarce currently and 15ct are in very light volumes with 12ct being a little short overall too. Mexico is crossing small volumes of cantaloupes with very small quantities of 15ct. The current market is steady. The large size fruit trend will continue for the near future. We are experiencing decent demand for cantaloupes at this time. Offshore melons are arriving in Florida and volumes will continue to increase weekly. Initial reports show good quality lopes peaking on 9ct.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Maricopa, AZ Steady Excellent
Hermosillo, Mexico Steady Excellent
Zacapa, Guatemala Steady Excellent
Melon (Honeydew)

The peak size is currently 6ct with more of all sizes coming in than previously. Our honeydew market is steady on all sizes. Honeydews are now finished in the West Side district. Mexican dews are shipping out of Nogales AZ and domestic dews are being packed in Maricopa AZ. Demand is good on all sizes. The quality and sugar contents from both regions continue to be good and this looks to continue. Offshore dews are set to arrive during the later part of November.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Maricopa, AZ Steady Excellent
Hermosillo, Mexico Steady Excellent
Onions

Washington - jumbo yellows are steady and mediums and colossals are steady with only light availability. Reds are steady on both sizes. Some shippers will flex on volume jumbo yellows. The quality for all colors has been good.
Idaho/Oregon - the yellow market is still quoted steady but there are volume deals on jumbos and larger. The yellow demand has been fair. Reds and whites are both steady on both sizes. The quality for all colors has been good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Ontario, OR to Nampa, ID Steady Good
Quincy/Hermiston, WA Steady Good
Pears

Washington - the Bartlett market is rising due to lighter supplies than normal. The Bartlett pears production is 20-25% down from last year. The fruit continues to peak on 110/120s and large size Bartletts remain very short. Bosc are steady and continue to peak on 90/100/110s. D'anjou pears are also steady and continue to peak on 90/100s. Most shippers are short of D'anjou 80s and larger. Red pears are steady on all sizes and are still producing mostly half carton 45/50s and full carton 90/100s. The quality has ranged on the bartletts as some suppliers are between regular storage and C.A. The D'anjou, Bosc, and red pear quality is good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Wenatchee/Yakima, WA and Hood River, OR Steady Good
Potatoes

Washington - the carton market is mostly steady on all sizes. There are various carton deals still available. The norkotah quality has been good.
Idaho - the carton market is slightly lower for norkotah and Burbank 70s and larger. Norkotah 80s and smaller are also slightly lower while Burbank 80's and smaller are steady. The volume deals on number-twos and the larger counts remain in both varieties. The quality for both has been good.
Colorado - the carton market is steady for all sizes. Volume deals on 70s and larger are still available. The norkotah quality has been good.
Wisconsin - the market is steady on all sizes. Wisconsin still has an even size distribution from large to small. Some suppliers have limited supplies of 90-count and smaller. The norkotah quality has been good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Hamer/Rupert, ID Lower/Steady Good
Plover/Bancroft, WI Steady Good
Monte Vista, CO Steady Good
Quincy/Hermiston, WA Steady Good
Potatoes (colored)

Bakersfield, California - all sizes and colors are steady and continue to peak on size A. Premium size reds and golds remain short. The quality has been good.
Western Washington - reds and golds are steady and they are also peaking on A-size. Whites are finishing up already. The quality has been good in all colors.
Central/Eastern Idaho - Reds and golds are steady on all sizes and continue to peak on A-size. The quality is good.
Wisconsin - Reds and golds are steady and both colors are peaking on A-size. Number-two Bs, Premium and baker reds, premium and baker golds, and gold C supplies are all limited. The quality has been good.
North Dakota - Reds and golds are steady and still peaking on size A. Number 1 and 2 Red B volume remains limited along with premiums and bakers in both colors. The quality has been good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Bakersfield, CA Steady Good
Mount Vernon, WA Steady Good
Rupert to Rexburg, ID Steady Good
Red River Valley, ND Steady Good
Plover, WI Steady Good
Stone Fruit

Peruvian cherries are arriving on the East Coast. These are all air shipments so quantities are limited. The market is good with good quality being reported.

- pa_admin

Transitions:
Peruvian cherries are arriving on the East Coast.

Growing Region Market Quality
Coquimbo, Valaparaiso, Santiago and Rancagua, Chile Steady Good
Tomatoes (Eastern)

Rounds - The market is steady. Florida remains warm and supplies are coming on. Quality very good. Demand is steady with current pricing and with the holiday approaching. Mexico product is in shorter supplies and pricing is up. Quality is good.
Roma - The market is higher. Supplies continue to be a bit tighter. Demand strong due to supplies with holiday as well. Mexico continues to be tighter due to weather conditions. Quality is good.
Cherry - The market is steady. Supplies are good in the east. Demand is steady with holiday. Mexico crossing cherrys but limited supplies and market much higher out west. Quality is good.
Grape - The market is steady. Florida is seeing more supplies. Mexico is crossing grapes out west as well. Quality is good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Northern Florida Steady Good
Charleston, SC Steady Good
Tomatoes (Western)

Rounds - The market is steady. Weather continues to slow up production. Mexico seeing lower supplies and demand steady/higher. Florida has more supplies and market a bit lower in the east. Quality is good.
Roma - The market is higher. Supplies continue to be lower this week. Demand continues to be strong with up coming holiday. Additional supplies available in Florida, but market is up as well. Quality is good.
Cherry - The market is higher. West continues to see lighter supplies. Florida has more supplies and market off a bit from west. Mexico product about 3-4 dollars higher. Quality is good.
Grape - The market is steady. Mexico is crossing grapes, but the market continues to be steady with up coming holiday. Florida has good supplies on grapes. Quality is good.

- pa_admin
Growing Region Market Quality
Northern Baja California Norte, Mexico Steady/Higher Good
Northern Sonora, Mexico Steady/Higher Good

Things You Should Know

Berries (Strawberries)
Demand exceeds supply in all growing regions. We are experiencing a severe shortage of strawberries industry-wide and this supply gap looks to continue for another 3-5 weeks.

Broccoli
Broccoli demand exceeds supplies. Pricing is on escalator.

Cauliflower
Cauliflower demands exceeds supplies. Escalated pricing in effect.

Celery
Celery supplies extremely light. Demand exceeds supplies and escalated pricing is in effect.

Citrus (Lemons)
Demand exceeds supply on the smaller sized fruit 165s/200s/235s. Expect shortages to go through January.

Grapes (Green)
Quality on the domestic crop is off.

Lettuce Iceberg
Lettuce demand exceeds supplies. Escalated pricing in effect.

Lettuce Leaf
Light supplies on leaf all week. Escalated pricing in effect.

Transitions and Temperatures

Berries (Blueberries)
Chilean blueberry crops should begin to ramp up in production over the next several weeks and we should see more shipments to the US.

Berries (Blackberries)
Mexico is ramping up production volume weekly!

Berries (Strawberries)
Central Mexico and Central Florida should be increasing in production over the next 3-5 weeks.

Grapes (Red)
Early Peruvian red's are now available in limited quantities on the East Coast.

Stone Fruit
Peruvian cherries are arriving on the East Coast.

Grapes (Green)
Peruvian green grapes available on the East Coast. Limited quantities

Celery
Salinas will have production for another 1-2 weeks.

Broccoli
Yuma expected to begin production after Thanksgiving.

Lettuce Leaf
Salinas and Huron finished with production. Yuma harvest has begun.

Cauliflower
Yuma is not expecting production until after Thanksgiving.

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