The Source - July 13, 2015

One California shipper is packing gala apples and they are peaking on 100/113s with only light supplies of 80s and larger. This early variety is high in color. The market has dropped slightly and is being quoted steady but there is some volume flex.
Michigan is still packing Red Delicious and they say they will have fruit through the month. They are peaking on 100s and larger and are short on the smaller sizes. The quality has been fair due to lighter pressures.
Washington Red Delicious are still being quoted steady but the price-flex for 88s and larger is still there. Most shippers are still peaking on 88s and larger in the premium and Washington extra #1 grades. Golden Delicious are mostly steady on all sizes. 125 & 138s are still more limited than the rest. Granny-Smith are mostly steady and are still peaking on 72s and larger. Supplies of 100s and smaller remain short. Fujis and Galas are cleaning up quickly and supplies are limited, most shippers have holes in their manifests and are quoting higher. The markets for both varieties remain active.

The asparagus market is strengthening. Quality and volume out of Mexico (our principal growing region now) is suffering due to rain. Peruvian asparagus is coming in to the East Coast but quantities are not sufficient to cover current demand. This market looks to remain strong throughout the week.

California harvest has declined after the July 4th holiday; dropping 15 percent last week. Production is expected to decrease slightly over the next several weeks, as the Southern region wraps up its harvest. Peak sizing on 48's / 60's. Very good demand is keeping supplies on all sizes tight, but currently matching supplies. Quality and flavor are both excellent.

Mexican production dipped down last week by 23 percent. Harvest this week is expected to bounce back up with a mix of old crop and the Flor Loca crop. The Flor Loca crop from Mexico is in the supply chain now; expect Flor Loca to have less maturity than the old crop, lower oil, brighter green and slower to break. Ripe fruit could still be green in color as the skin isn't mature enough for it to darken. Color is not an indication of ripeness, pressure is.

Demand has been moderate to good. Availability has varied by shipper, day to day. Some shippers are still gapping on blackberries and fill-rating orders based on daily availability or ability to purchase product outside of their label. Production volumes should continue to increase as we move through July with projected peak volumes to come at the beginning of August. Warmer weather has continued to bring on the fruit and produce better flavor.

Transitions:
GA and NC volumes have declined significantly and will continue to do so until fresh production ends for the season in those areas.

With several growing regions going at this time, we look to have very good availability throughout the month of July. Quality is good overall in all areas. Larger volume packs are available and are being promoted currently. This is an excellent time to promote fresh blueberries with deals available in large packs and bulk.

Transitions:
GA and NC have ended most major production on fresh blueberries.

MI is ramping up on volume this week.

Raspberry production volumes are increasing and the CA crop is lining up to peak in early August. Good quality is reported overall and consistent shelf life.

Demand is moderate overall with better demand for best quality fruit. Many grower/shippers have been diverting fields to processing fruit (freezer, juice) to avoid quality issues on arrivals in the fresh market. Nighttime temperatures are remaining warmer than normal and humidity has been high. Increased quality issues are being reported from white shoulders and green tips to soft, bruised, overripe, mildew and generally smaller fruit. Order only what you need at this time as you do not want to get long on fruit. Maintaining proper cold-chain will be of utmost importance to reduce the occurrence of mold popping up on the fruit when exposed to warm temperatures.

Peak Seasons:
We are entering post-peak production period for California strawberries. Volume will continue to gradually decline and fruit size will continually decrease.

Good supplies and good quality with just average demand are keeping the broccoli market flat. The short term outlook continues to be about the same. We see a possible supply gap developing around the end of this week into next week. Supplies out of Mexico are beginning to show some yellowing and hollow core. Growers here are ahead of themselves in the field as the warmer than normal temperatures have brought the fields on ahead of schedule. Any increase in demand coupled with these factors will force this market up.

Bakersfield crop is in full swing on production. Weather has been warm and size is coming on and we're seeing much better production of Jumbo carrots.

The cauliflower market is showing signs of improving. Quality, due to the excessive heat last week, is only fair to good and is reducing yields per acre. Lighter supplies with average demand have firmed this market up. Any increase in demand (or further decrease in supplies) will push this market higher.

Despite a push by shippers last week, these markets have fallen back. Unseasonably warm weather has brought supplies on. This, along with the start of the Michigan deal, looks to keep this market down for the remainder of the week. We see no reason for significant improvement in this market; barring a weather event, until demand picks up for school business.

The cherry market is suffering from poor demand and only fair to good quality. The harvest is finishing this week, with shippers trying to catch up on current inventories by pricing aggressively downward.

Crop is peaking on 140s and smaller. Demand is exceeding supplies on all sizes and grades of fruit. Very good demand and drought conditions in growing areas means less production of fruit and no size growth. These are the major factors for the demand exceeds supply conditions.

Alerts:
Demand exceeds supply. Summertime demand and lighter production caused by the California drought. Expect lighter supplies throughout the summer and into the fall.

The lime market once again continues to be steady on all sizes. Growers continue harvesting less due to low market conditions. Lower prices have helped demand on all sizes. The overall quality is very good on the crop that is being harvested. Growers are starting to get into old crop limes now. We should start seeing thinner skin with lighter color in some lots coming up.

California Valencia oranges are going with good volume on 72s, 88s, 113s, 138's. Demand is improving on 88's/113's/138's and seeing prices firm up for some shippers as well as slowing the pace of packing fruit to begin stretching out this year's lighter volume crop. Quality on Valencias is very good.

Green grapes are easing back slightly as more growers are able to harvest. The recent cooling has allowed the grapes to sugar up enough for harvest. Sizing is still an issue with the predominance of the fruit running to a large code. We expect sizing and sugar to continue to improve over the next few weeks.

The red seedless market is about steady with limited supplies of the larger fruit. Sizing will continue to be an issue until we finish the Arvin deal and move more into the Fresno / Reedley region. We expect to transition with Flames in about 2 weeks. Quality is still being reported as very good.

Rain in Mexico is limiting harvest. Lighter supplies with steady demand have firmed up this market. Quality out of Mexico, due to the weather, is only fair. Salinas production and quality continue to be good. We expect to see this market moderate as the weather clears and production out of Mexico is able to return to normal.

Lighter demand and increasing supplies, due to the warm weather in California, are pulling the Iceberg Lettuce market down. Quality is fair to good at best with fringe burn, tip burn and some insect damage showing up in many of the lots being harvested. We see no change in this market for the coming week.

The red leaf and green leaf markets are about steady, with adequate supplies to meet light demand. Quality on these is fairly good with good weights. The occasional insect damage appears to be the only real issue and this is generally light and limited to a few select lots. The romaine market is falling with better supplies available from all shippers. Quality is more of an issue with some fringe burn, tip burn and the occasional insect damage showing up. The market on boston is steady with adequate supply for limited demand.

The San Joaquin Valley aka "The West Side" is running at a good pace on all sizes of cantaloupes. The peak size is mainly 12s and 15ct but the size curve is moving back towards the larger sizes. The West Side has very good quality and good sugar content. The current market is steady to lower on 9s and 12s. The market on 15s is steady for now at the current level.

The San Joaquin Valley aka "The West Side" is our main producer now. The peak size is currently 6s and is slowly shifting towards the larger sizes. The quality and sugar contents are high for the dews right now and this trend looks to continue. The market on the 5s and 6s is trending slowly downwards and should do so for the next few days.

New Mexico was hit with several days of rain and hail this last week, which did significant damage to a small portion of the remaining onion crop in this region. The storms were not widespread and the center of the severe damage was contained mostly in and around Deming, NM. All other areas did receive enough rain to effect harvest till the middle of this week. I do not anticipate any significant gaps, however once they do start shipping again we will see some minor staining present on the external root end of the bulbs from sitting in the wet soil. New Mexico has roughly 4 weeks left and with good weather in the forecast we expect things should end on a good note. Expect market volatility this week as the overall supply picture unfolds. Things should level back out next week as supplies get back to normal.
California has light supplies of all colors this week due to growers switching varieties. I do not anticipate any issues filling orders but some orders could be delayed.
Washington has just started to break ground on new crop onions this week. The size profile on the first onions has been small, peaking on mediums and smaller. The size should slowly increase over the next couple of weeks. Overall quality is being reported as good.
Watch for the onion market to push higher as this weeks moves on.

Alerts:
New Mexico - Rain and hail this last week has supplies limited with climbing market.

California continues to pack Bartlett pears around the Lodi/Stockton area. They are peaking on US#1 80/90/100s. Stark Crimson pears are also available and are producing 35-55 size half cartons. The markets for both colors are steady and the quality is good.
Washington still has D'anjou pears and they are peaking on US#1 80-100s. Most packers are limited on anything smaller than a US#1 110 and all sizes in the fancy grade. The D'anjou market is steady. Washington will have D'anjou pears through July.
The Chilean pears are cleaning up and should be finished early this week.

Potato demand out of all growing areas is steady with very little change in pricing and availability. All growing regions continue to feel comfortable on bridging the gap from old crop to new crop. New crop harvest will begin around the end of July in Washington and Wisconsin. Followed closely by Idaho and Colorado. Quality is being reported as good.

Bakersfield, California continues to pack red, white, and gold potatoes but some suppliers have finished for the season so supplies are in fewer hands. All colors continue to peak on A-size and the markets are steady. Gold supplies remain light. Bakersfield will pack reds and golds through July 24th and whites through August. The quality has been good.
Stockton, California is packing all colors. All are heavy to A-size and the markets are steady. The quality is good with very little if any skinning.
Muleshoe, Texas is packing red potatoes and a few golds, they are both peaking on A-size. The demand has been strong and the market relatively high, the quality has been good.
Alabama is steady on reds and they are also peaking on A's. They have better availability in bagged product but cartons are available in the A & B size, nobody packs a C-size. They will have golds in one week.
Camden, North Carolina is packing all colors but they have more whites and reds available, with only light supplies of golds. All colors are heavy to A-size and C-size reds and golds are extremely short. The quality is being reported as good.
Virginia is packing all colors but they have more whites and reds available, with only light supplies of golds. All colors are heavy to A-size. C-size reds and golds are extremely short. The quality is being reported as good, but some packers have had minor skinning issues.
Wisconsin has started packing reds but they only have B-size for the next week to 10 days.

The peach and nectarine markets continue to be about steady with a few shippers pricing aggressively to move select sizes. Pricing and supplies vary from shipper to shipper and from variety to variety. Quality overall is reported as very good. Apricots are in the last stages of harvest with many shippers quoting from a reduced inventory only. Both red and black plums are about steady on the market with good supplies and fair demand. Sizing is still heavy to the 50 series and smaller.

Weather is still an issue in the East and is causing harvest delays in the Tennessee and Virginia regions. Buyers are looking west to fill product needs. Round and roma tomato volume are increasing with Tennessee and Virginia starting to harvesting this week. Cherry and grape tomatoes along the eastern shore have started harvesting in decent volumes. The East is still in a supply does not meet demand position but the gap is closing. The grape tomatoes are yielding higher than expected. This should help bring the price down. The current supply is steady and should cover demand.

Pressure from the East has caused the Western markets to tighten up a bit. Central Mexico remains steady in supply and we should start seeing some smaller fruit crossing as crops get into seconds. Roma tomatoes remain in moderate to light supplies and decent quality with another increase in price on the horizon as Eastern growers offer out competitive pricing. Grape and cherry tomatoes are improving with supplies meeting demand. Northern Baja / Central Mexico grape tomatoes are seeing good quality and volume. San Joaquin Valley is in lighter supply with decent quality. Weather permitting, we can expect the market to soften a bit. Tropical Storm Dolores however is located about 175 miles southwest of Manzanillo moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds in the system were estimated to be 70 mph, just shy of hurricane strength. Over the next five days, Dolores is expected to continue tracking northwest slowly as it intensifies to a CAT 3 Hurricane south of Baja by Wednesday. Long range models have been fairly consistent in a slow northwest track thru the weekend, then turning northward early next week and dissipating at sea. Some moisture from the system may drift into portions of CA late next week but forecast confidence on that scenario remains low at this time.