The Source - December 24, 2019

Washington
Washington shippers are exporting smaller fruit at a higher rate and we are seeing prices begin to ‘firm up’ on certain varieties (Gala, Red Delicious). With that said, the aggressive deals (single-digit prices) are quickly disappearing, but there is still plenty of small fruit available at low prices. This trend should continue; especially once we are into the new year and schools return from winter break. Quality is excellent and with great shelf-life.

Cosmic Crisps were gone before they were available. Even though most WA shippers are approved to grow/sell the new variety, not all of them had it to sell. Some shippers are waiting until next season before entering the market, while others had a minimal amount of bins to pack. Initial estimates called for approximately 2.1 million cases statewide, but that amount was quickly scaled back to approximately 324,000 cases (collectively) for the month of December, with the majority going to retail chains at dollar amounts far exceeding Honeycrisp prices. January 2020 will bring the next round of availability, but expectations MUST be tempered as availability will mirror December.

Volume from both regions in Mexico (Ciudad Obregon/Northern Baja) has continued to decline. Sonora is still having cold weather, and rain is in the forecast for the next 7 days. Production will be delayed from this region. All sizes are tight due to the weather and seasonality. Volume has continued to decrease from both regions in Peru (Ica/Trujillo) and all sizes remain tight. Markets on both coasts are higher this week with production being down from all regions.

California yields will be doubled from last year. Certain sizes are being released to harvest, although it will be trickling in a light way and not enough to ship programs. We do not anticipate to start picking serious volume until Super Bowl. Strong yields expected for the month of March. The 2018-19 season wrapped up harvest at approximately 215 million pounds. This year, the California crop is estimated to come between 370-377 million pounds.

Weather in the growing region of Michoacan this week calls for temps in the 70's with no rain in the forecast. Pricing has remained stable in the previous weeks. Mexico continues to harvest and ship healthy volumes as we head into 2020. Arrivals are up year over year on Mexican fruit. There is plenty of fruit on the trees with 48's being the dominant size. The fruit is still lower maturity but improving in oil content weekly as we progress into the season. Mexico is expected to harvest good yields for the next three months barring any issues.

Green bell pepper pricing has been steady for a few weeks and supply has been good. Bell pepper supply in the east is coming from south Florida's east and west coast. The region received heavy rains over this past weekend and most growers are going to wait until late this week to resume harvesting, in turn, supplies will be tight for a few days. The long term effect will not be bad but some shoulder bruising should be expected until the pepper fully dries out.

Alerts:
Over two inches of rain this weekend in South Florida has stopped the Bell Pepper harvest for a few days.

GREEN BELL-Green bell peppers continue to be harvested in three different growing regions. Regions include the Coachella Valley in California and the Mexican states of Sonora and Sinaloa. Supplies on domestic bell pepper from California are decreasing with cooler weather. Quality on bell peppers from California remains good this week. Good supplies from both Mexican districts expected this week and the weather is expected to be good through the week. Quality on green bell pepper has improved this week to good. The market on green bell pepper from all districts remains steady. Moderate supplies of green pepper also available to load McAllen, Texas.
RED BELL -Red bell peppers continue to be harvested in the Coachella Valley in California and in the Mexican state of Sinaloa this week. Red bell supplies are moderate from both districts. Quality from both crops is good. The red bell pepper market is currently steady on both varieties. Hot House supplies from Sinaloa have increased this week. Open field variety from Coachella California is expected to finish by the end of December. Light supplies of Red bell pepper are also available to load in McAllen, TX.
YELLOW BELL - Good supplies of Yellow bell pepper are being harvested in Mexico from Sinaloa. Light supplies of yellow bell pepper continue to be harvested in the Coachella Valley. The Market on Mexican yellow bell pepper has decreased due to better supplies. The market on domestic yellow bell pepper remains higher/steady due to light supplies. Quality from both districts is good. Light supplies of Yellow bell pepper are also crossing through McAllen, Texas.

Blackberries are in the same situation as the raspberries. Very good numbers crossing out of Mexico and a lull in demand due to the upcoming Holidays have caused prices to ease off. Quality is fair however we are still seeing red cell in most lots.

Blueberries are in abundant supplies throughout the U. S. from Mexico, Peru, Argentina, and Chile. Look for markets to remain flat as we see highly promotable numbers for the next several weeks. Quality has been good as long as the fruit is fresh.

Alerts:
Higher volume from all areas will produce good large quantity buys at reduced pricing.

Raspberries are still coming into the U.S. in good numbers out of Mexico. The market remains flat as we see a lack of demand prior to the holidays. Quality has been good as long as lots are shipped promptly with correct temperatures. Volume deals are available at this time

Winter strawberry quality is always subject to the weather as is the market pricing. Supplies out of Oxnard and Santa Maria are still fairly tight after recent rains. Santa Maria will be finishing up this week as we start to rely more on the Oxnard area for most of the production. Quality has been fair but expect to see some water-related issues in some lots. Mexico is beginning to produce significant numbers affecting the overall market with potential volume deals being offered. Quality has been good out of Mexico. Florida is now a viable loading option as well as shippers work in-between weather fronts to produce credible numbers. Quality there has been good. Look for rain events to hamper quality and production out of Oxnard, Santa Maria, Florida, and the Baja Peninsula in the upcoming days.

Alerts:
Rain is forecast through the next several days in most growing regions excluding Central Mexico

Transitions:
Santa Maria will show sharp decline after the last rains . Oxnard will slowly pick up the pace.

Peak Seasons:
Peak season is approaching the Oxnard area and has been going on in Central Mexico for the last few weeks.

The Broccoli market continues to stay steady as supplies have stayed steady in Yuma as well as Santa Maria and Oxnard. Quality has slightly improved with slight purpling, some mechanical damage, and occasional yellow cast. Look for Broccoli to adjust slightly upward going into next week with the wet weather this week in Yuma.

The brussels sprouts market continues to come off as there is a steady supply in the pipeline. Quality has improved causing better yields. Look for the Brussels sprouts market to continue to remain the same going into next week.

The California carrot market has changed little from last week with steady markets and supplies on all but the Jumbo SKU. Jumbo carrots are still in limited supplies out West with escalated prices. Mexico is still producing good numbers as an alternative for the 50Lb pack and the 25lb pack as well. Northeast Canadian storage carrots are nearly done as we move into January. When they do run dry it should help volume movement out of both the West Coast and Mexico regions.

Alerts:
California jumbo carrots are still in short supply

The cauliflower market continues to stay mostly steady as supplies are consistent out of Yuma as well as Santa Maria and Oxnard. The quality is good with slight bruising and yellow cast with weights in the 25 to 28-pound level. Some suppliers may need to sub sizing to fill orders. Look for the market to adjust upward going into next week with the wet weather this week.

Although the weather will be cold and rainy in the Oxnard /Santa Maria region, suppliers have not turned away any orders for this commodity. The market is actually softer. Celery has the ability to absorb more water than other crops and shippers are expecting moderate supplies for the week. Labor will be less, much like Yuma but demand is expected to be met by most suppliers. There will be no harvest on Wednesday from any shipper. The demand is steady and all sizing is available. A few shippers are flexing for volume type orders. Mexico will continue to have production on all sizing. Weights are 53-57 pounds. Leafy tops and minimal bowing is being reported upon arrivals.

Jalapenos- Good supplies of Jalapeno continue to be harvested in the Sonora and Sinaloa growing district. Good supplies are expected throughout the week. Quality from both districts is good. The Jalapeno market is steady. Jalapenos from Mexico are also available to load in McAllen, Texas.

Pasilla- Good supplies of pasilla crossing through Nogales. Quality on pasilla crossing through Nogales is good. Size on the pepper is mostly medium to large. The pasilla market steady this week with better supplies. Pasilla from Mexico also available to load in McAllen, Texas.

Anaheim- Good supplies of Anaheim crossing through Nogales this week. Quality on Anaheim crossing through Nogales is good. Size on the pepper is mostly medium to large. The Anaheim market has decreased with better supplies. Anaheim from Mexico also available to load in McAllen, Texas.

Serrano – Good supplies of Serrano peppers available to load in Nogales, from Mexico. Good supplies are expected throughout the week. Supplies currently meet demand. Serrano supplies also crossing through McAllen, Texas.

Tomatillo – Moderate supplies of Husk tomatillos are available to load in Nogales, from Mexico. Crop from Sonora is finishing up. Quality from Sonora is currently fair. Sinaloa crop is expected to start within 10 days. Better supplies of peeled this week due to fair quality on husk variety. The market on peeled tomatillo has decreased and is steady, while the market on husk has increased due to quality. Both husk and peeled tomatillo are available to load in McAllen, TX

The cilantro market continues to stay steady as supplies continue to be plentiful. The cilantro quality is good with an occasional yellow leaf. Look for the cilantro market to adjust going into next week with the wet weather we are having this week.

District 1 (Central Valley area) supplies are coming along nicely. The sizing profile is peaking on 115’s and smaller with a 70/30 ratio from fancy to choice grade. The large sizes 75/95 are still snug but are projected to be more readily available after the New Year. We can continue to expect good supplies with steady markets and good quality through the remainder of December.

Limes supplies are expected to get snug over the next few weeks due to limited harvest schedules for the upcoming holidays. The growing region of Veracruz continues to lack rain and needs more rain for supplies to turn back around. Overall the quality has been consistent. We expect pricing to be active for the remainder of December.

The Central Valley will be getting some consistent rain this week. Suppliers are doing there best to cover last-minute orders. Please make sure to send orders in advance. Overall, the cool overnight and morning temperatures are providing us with excellent natural color and bringing gas hours down. Demand continues to be steady and prices are settling in as we see better availability and all arrivals have been received with good feedback. Sizing profile is peaking on 88’s and smaller. Brix levels have been consistent between 11.5% – 12.5% with good quality. On Specialty citrus keep pushing mandarins, the quality has been looking solid and markets have been steady. Grapefruit supplies are steady with stable markets. The Cara Cara’s and bloods should be in better shape this week depending on the rain. The Minneola Tangelos are off to a good start. Expect supplies to be light to start with but will gradually increase over the next couple of weeks.

Alerts:
Rain in the growing regions plus the holiday this week will affect harvest schedules. Please make sure to send orders in advance.

Cucumber supplies are getting better as more containers arrive from Honduras. Florida is still harvesting steady supplies of cucumbers and will through the end of the year. Rain this past weekend will slow harvest for a few days until fields dry out but the rain will not have a long term impact. Honduras will be the largest supplier of cucumbers for the next few months and supplies should remain steady. Quality has been good in both regions.

Moderate supplies of cucumbers continue to cross through Nogales from Mexico. Cucumber supplies remain steady along with the cucumber market this week. Cucumber supplies continue to be harvested in Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico. Cucumbers from Sonora are expected to finish up early by up to two weeks with colder temperatures in the growing areas. Quality on cucumbers crossing through Nogales remains good. Moderate supplies of Mexican cucumbers are also crossing through McAllen. Quality from McAllen is being reported is fair.

Eggplant supplies are slightly lower this week as demand has picked up. Florida is harvesting on the east and west coast of the state with steady supplies and very good quality. Demand has picked up for the holiday season and pricing has risen slightly. We expect suppliers and pricing to remain fairly steady through the end of the year.

Good supplies of eggplant continue to be available to load in Nogales, AZ. Eggplant supplies crossing through Nogales continue to be harvested in Sinaloa. Good supplies of eggplant expected through the week with warm temperatures in the mid 80’s in Sinaloa. All sizes currently being packed this week. Good quality on eggplant crossing through Nogales.

Domestic Green Grapes:
Most of the domestic green grape supply has been used. Reports show approximately 700K cases of domestic greens left in storage. Shippers expect that inventory to be used over the next week. We should see a total transition into import fruit by next week. I have been pushing all shippers to utilize import fruit as much as possible. Although the domestic fruit market prices continue to remain inflated, the import grapes are even higher!

Import Green Grapes:
Volumes of Peruvian green grapes have been slowly increasing on both the east and west coasts. Quality is being reported as very strong. Due to the crazy domestic market and quality disparity, importers are still fetching premium prices on the import green grapes. We expect to see increased arrivals of Peruvian and Chilean green grapes over the next 2-3 weeks. We should see promotable volumes and price decreases by the middle of January. Import green grapes will be in better supplies that red grapes for the next 3 weeks.

Alerts:
Domestic supplies are almost done. Should be fully into import fruit by next week. Good supplies of Peruvian greens, but prices are still very high.

Transitions:
Peruvian arrivals will continue to increase. Chilean production is expected by mid January.

Domestic Red Grapes:
The latest reports show the industry still has close to 2 million cases of domestic red storage grapes available. Quality is hit and miss. There are some good lots left to choose from, but we have seen an increased number of problem arrivals. Soft berries, decay, and mold are the biggest factors. Unfortunately, the volume of import red grapes has been so low, that it is forcing the industry to continue to utilize domestic fruit to fill the demand. Because of this, market prices have been inflated and steady / firm for the last several weeks. I do not see this changing for at least another 2-3 weeks, as we wait for import fruit to increase.

Import Red Grapes:
Peru has had a colder than normal spring which has lead to low brix levels and decreased production. As the Peruvian growers wait on sugar levels to rise and meet import regulations, we are experiencing an import red grape shortage in the US. Typically, we would see an overlap of import and domestic fruit by this time. However, the supplies are just too low to gain any traction. Most of the limited volume of red import grapes is arriving on the east coast, with very little fruit available on the west. Quality is being reported as very good. Due to the lack of availability, market prices continue to be very high and firm. With the warmer weather finally showing up in Peru, we anticipate better production and increased arrivals by the second week of January. Chilean production is expected to start around the same time. Taking all that into consideration, it looks like late January / early February will be the sweet spot to start promotions and see sharper pricing.

Alerts:
Domestic grapes are steady, quality is fair and prices are flat. Import grapes are very limited, quality is better and prices are higher. Better supplies by early January.

Transitions:
Peruvian grapes are very slow to arrive, better availability in 2 weeks. Chilean production is scheduled to start by early January.

The green onion market continues to increase as there continues to be a labor shortage in Mexico. Crews in Mexico tend to take this time of the year off causing lower supplies. Quality is fair with occasional leaf minor caused by the recent colder weather. The market will continue to adjust higher going into next week.

The kale market has recently come off but this may change with the wet weather heading to Yuma this week. Quality is good with full bunches and an occasional yellow leaf being reported. Depending on the severity of these storms, look for the market to strengthen going into next week.

Heavy rains and cool weather in all the growing regions are the expected forecast. All suppliers are expecting light supplies for the rest of the week. The lack of labor will be an issue that will be industry-wide. Yuma and Salinas will be the main growing regions for this commodity. Shippers are no longer flexing like the previous week. Expect lighter weights along with issues of mechanical, mildew, misshapen heads and decay. Weights on wrap lettuce will be 33-37 pounds on the average with a few suppliers possibly a little higher. There will be no harvest on Wednesday.

Alerts:
Rain and cool weather will be a big issue this week with the production of lettuce.

With impending bad weather in the growing regions of Yuma and Santa Maria/Oxnard, expect the romaine market as well as all leaf items to be active. Demand is average at best right now. Shippers are no longer flexing but there will still be enough availability to meet demand. Reports indicate that defects will include mechanical, mildew, blister and some slight fringe burn. Similar defects are also reported on green and red leaf as well as butter. The weights on romaine will average 27-35 pounds. The green and red leaf items will be 18-21 pounds. Lack of labor will also be an issue this week. There will be no harvest on Wednesday.

Alerts:
Impending bad weather will limit availability on all leaf items.

The Tender Leaf market continues to stay steady with consistent supplies. This may change with the wet weather this week as Yuma has two storms coming through. Curly parsley, spinach, and arugula could tighten up going into next week. Quality is good with occasional yellowing and bruising of the tender leaves.

Arrivals are up year over year on cantaloupes out of Guatemala. The fruit is showing great internal and external color with good external netting. This week, we are seeing a moderate demand and the market is holding steady. Inventories on the east coast are solid and replenished. On the west coast, we are seeing a stronger market on arrivals due to the 8 day travel time by vessel from Central America. We are weeks away from seeing a heavy influx of fruit with Honduras and Costa Rica ramping up production.

The honeydew market remains active. We are seeing very low crossings from Mexico and Central America. Guatemalan growers are seeing major issues as far as production. As crews harvest the melon patches, they are seeing mostly smaller sized fruit (8's & 9's). The fruit just does not seem to be sizing up. There have not been any reports of viruses or whitefly infestation, but growers seem to think it may be the seed variety planted this year.
Open market options are very limited especially, on larger sized fruit (5's &6's). This will be the trend for the next few weeks until Honduras and Costa Rica can provide some relief.
Mexico is also struggling with production although year over year arrivals are up slightly into the US. The west coast is leaning heavily on Mexico to cover the growing demand. Currently, there is new crop fruit being harvested in the region of Guerrero. The fruit is showing good internal and external quality and brix levels are up to par.

Alerts:
Supplies continue to be a challenge as Mexico and Central America struggle with production.

Good supplies of watermelon are currently being harvested in the Mexican state of Colima. Watermelon supplies from Colima are expected to be steady throughout the week. Weather in the mid 80’s is expected through the remainder of the week. The quality from this district is good. The market on watermelon is steady and expected to remain steady through the week. Both cartons and bins being packed.

Onion supplies in the Northwest are in good supply but showing a slight increase with added demand from the holiday pull. Quality remains excellent in Idaho and Oregon. Supplies are also plentiful in other regions such as Washington, Utah, and Colorado. Storage onions are in peak season with great supplies as we finish up December.

Alerts:
Yellow onions as well as medium sizes for all colors are slightly higher

Peak Seasons:
Storage onions are in peak season with excellent supply and quality!

Washington:

Bartlett pears are drying up for smaller shippers, leaving larger shippers to fill orders from customers who demand this particular variety. Currently, all three flavors (Bartlett, Anjou, and Bosc) remain available, but Green D’Anjou has the longer shelf-life followed by Bosc.

Red Anjou is the variety currently available and are packed in ½ (20#) and full cartons (40#). Markets are steady and quality is excellent.

Specialty varieties—such as Seckel, Forelle, Comice, and Asian—are still available, but most shippers are done packing and inventories will be depleted early to mid-January. Quality is good.

No real change from last week, pineapple supplies continue to be steady out of both coasts. Markets remain fair, and demand seems to be light for the last week of December. Quality has been consistent and looking good!

Russet potatoes are in short supply this week as suppliers run limited pack hours due to the holidays. The majority of Idaho suppliers are in Burbank variety with the size profile leaning heavily to 80 count and smaller. Larger sized 40 count through 70 count along with 10oz #2's are limited. Markets continue to inch up on the larger sizes and are expected to do so as we roll into 2020. Quality on Burbanks is overall good with some lots showing occasional shoulder bruise and peepers (picture attached) due to the lack of sprout inhibitor used in short term cellars. Limited supply of Norkotahs is available in Idaho along with other regions such as Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin. We continue to recommend 5-7 business days lead time prior to ship date to ensure proper coverage and on-time deliveries.

Alerts:
Larger sizes and #2 grade remain limited. Lead time needed on all russet orders; up to 7 days advised.

The color potato markets remain relatively steady. Holiday demand has pushed up red potatoes slightly. Production of reds and yellows is available in Idaho, Washington, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Mt. Vernon, Washington continues to exhibit excellent quality. As we move through the holidays and roll into 2020, we will begin to see a clearer picture on what is expected for the spring when North Dakota and Wisconsin are expected to finish for the season.

Squash supplies have been dipping down for the past week due to too cooler weather and natural cycles. Most of the eastern supply is being harvested in Immokalee and Homestead Florida. Quality has been good for the most part, with some scaring issues on yellow squash. Yellow squash is much tighter than zucchini because of the quality issues and more fruit is getting graded out of the pack.

Good supplies of Italian squash and moderate supplies yellow s/n is crossing through Nogales. Quality is improving on both varieties. Moderate supplies of Italian squash continue to be harvested in Sonora, Mexico and good quality continue to come from this district. Moderate supplies of Yellow S/N are being harvested in Sinaloa, Mexico. Quality of Yellow S/N from this district is good. Cool temperatures in the low 70’s expected this week in the Sonora growing areas. Soft squash Crop from Sonora is expected to finish in the coming two weeks or possibly sooner because of colder temperatures. Good temperatures in the mid 80’s expected in Sinaloa through the week. Full soft squash production from Sinaloa expected to start in the front part of January. The market on both yellow and Italian squash is steady this week. Light supplies of soft squash continue to cross through McAllen, TX.

New Chilean stone fruit is slowly arriving. Supplies are still fairly limited but expected to improve over the next 2 weeks. Currently, varieties, sizing, and loading options are limited. We do have some peaches and nectarines available now on the east and west coats. We expect plums to become available later this week; in limited volumes. Quality on the peaches and nectarines is being reported as very strong. Market prices are high, which is typical for the first arrivals. We expect to see supplies improve week over week and market prices start to decline as supplies increase. Look toward early January for promotional volumes.

Alerts:
Varieties, supplies and sizes are still limited. We expect Chilean arrivals to increase over the next 2-3 weeks. We hope to have promotable volumes and better prices by early January.

The Palmetto/Ruskin districts remain in production while transition has begun to move further south to the Naples and Immokalee growing districts. Florida has received rain since last week slowing harvest amidst already depleted supply. Cold weather is delaying new programs from tasking off and supply is expected to remain light until mid-January with markets returning to normal before February. Round and Roma tomatoes are holding with little change in price from last week. Grape and cherry tomatoes remain very light and by far the tightest item again this week. The market is high and relatively unchanged but expected to turn around and begin recovering sooner than rounds and romas as soon as the first week of January.

Alerts:
Demand Exceeds Supply. Availability is limited. Elevated Markets expected through December

Western tomatoes remain limited with little change to markets this week. Quality is less than desirable, however, product continues to sell out daily. Round and Roma tomato FOB’s continue to adjust to meet very strong demand. Likewise, grape tomatoes have not yet found a price limit in the market with much of what is available limited from the storm and delayed harvests in new crops. Baja is expecting rain at the end of this week while the weather is reported to be better in Central Mexico. Little product has been crossing over the past couple of days as the holiday approaches this week. Markets will remain elevated through the rest of December and not expected to rebound with supply for another 2-3 weeks minimum.

Alerts:
The recent storms in Mexico were significant weather systems that have devastated multiple areas of Mexico. Western Supply Extremely Short. Demand exceeds Supply.